Recent chemical plate beyond the market shock down, some excessive. In September, the profitability of chemical enterprises was significantly strengthened, especially the production and sales of end-product enterprises closely related to downstream consumption were still in good condition.

According to the analysis of industry data in August, the production growth of the chemical industry was good. The added value increased by 19.5% year-on-year in that month, 4.8 percentage points faster than that in July, the highest growth rate since last year. The profit growth trend in September was still getting better.

At present, PVC, methanol, soda and other upstream bulk chemical products have been significantly reduced, and the transmission mechanism of oil prices to the downstream has gradually lost its effect, and the problem of excess capacity is unavoidable. MDI, spandex, BOD in the middle and downstream product prices are still strong, silicone, DMF, viscose rise is still good, the demand from the bottom up to promote the effect gradually strengthened.

Agrochemical prices are still depressed, phosphate fertilizer prices are expected to take the lead to rebound, but the intensity is not large, pesticide and fertilizer is expected to go out of a wave of market in early 2010.

Emphasize, bulk chemical field to go to the road of overcapacity will be very difficult. First of all, the abnormal development of China's chemical industry makes it difficult to cut overcapacity. Investment in bulk product projects is still growing rapidly. There are still many bulk product projects planned by all provinces in the country. Secondly, the bulk products of the Middle East have a serious impact on the domestic market. International trade friction again frequent, the export situation is increasingly grim.

Demand to promote the effect gradually enhanced, the terminal product is still optimistic. At present, the secondary destocking is basically over. Drived by the economic recovery, the end products of the chemical industry chain, which is closely related to the consumption field, will continue to pick up. Most end product segments remained firmly profitable in the third and fourth quarters.

Under the policy - led theme investment opportunities still exist, and the atmosphere is gradually strong. Low-carbon economy and new energy will once again become investment hotspots; Government to promote asset restructuring, to achieve industry upgrading, is still the investment theme; Government-led natural gas price increase, the end of the executable, will be positive for dimethyl ether.

Overall, we remain optimistic about the growth of the chemical industry in the fourth quarter. But along with the expectation of chlorine alkali, soda soda and other bulk markets, the current performance must be firm support, investment targets to look for downstream, in addition to the theme of investment opportunities.